posted 01-30-10 00:35 ET (US)
For those who like numbers, I have some preliminary figures on the cheerful subject of deaths. I hope to expand on these soon - I haven't any figures for less than average health at the moment [edit July 5 2013: I do now 
], nor for the oldest demographic groups (since they tend to die before I have chance to count them). Assumption: that only city health and demographics affect deaths (not city size, climate, sentiment, food, hydrogenated fat in the diet, etc)
Every year, in early January, the Grim Reaper stakes claim to a proportion of your population (probably a good day to stay in bed). The exact numbers depend primarily on city health, which is itself determined primarily by clinic coverage.
City health is rated in-game as a precise number between 0 and 100, but its exact level is not revealed to you. Rather, the Chief Advisor reports the approximate level (average, good, very good, etc). When it comes to deaths, that is good enough because rates are not affected by rises/falls in health within a range. That is to say, deaths with health at 50 are the same as deaths with health at 59, since both translate to 'average'.
The following table summarizes the death rates for different demographic groups at different city health levels. Ages are on the assumption that census day is everybody's birthday so if you're looking to predict the coming thinning of the ranks remember that those aged 59 will be 60 on census day and so will fall within the 60-69 group (thus shortening their chances of making it through the night).
Added July 5 2013:
Edit - the death rate for 100-year-olds at all health levels is 100% but an apparent bug causes these to be applied unexpectedly, often killing 90-99s instead and giving rise to 'ghosts'. See reply #16.
Just because 10% of 70-somethings are due to meet their maker doesn't mean that 10% of 71-year-olds will. In apportioning deaths, the game first applies the appropriate percentage to the entire demographic group to determine how many to exterminate (ignoring fractions). It then distributes that number of deaths evenly among the constituents of the group using a what I call the sweet-sharing technique. When sharing a bag of sweets, children who lack the faculty to work out how many sweets each should have simply 'deal them out' until all are gone. One for you, one for him, one for me. So starting with the youngest, one person is taken from each age within the group and the process is repeated until the game has exhausted its need to kill more people.
It is clear that the younger ages in the group will bear the brunt of any remainder - if 55 deaths are needed from a group of 10 different ages the first 5 will suffer 6 while the remainder have 5. This is partly what gives rise to 'ghosts' - if there are 6 deaths due to befall the octogenarians the 89-year-olds will get off scot free if there are still at least six younger ages in that group at which people still live. And once you make it to 90 you've a real good chance of the ratio never making a whole number.
It also means that while 12% of a group might face the chop that will not necessarily fall evenly across the group. If you have 40 75-year-olds and 10 at 76, and 20% are due to pop their clogs, only an eigth of 75's will go while half the 76-year-olds are wiped out.
I'll try and get those blanks filled in soon, but I have a 4% chance of not living long enough to finish it.
], nor for the oldest demographic groups (since they tend to die before I have chance to count them). Assumption: that only city health and demographics affect deaths (not city size, climate, sentiment, food, hydrogenated fat in the diet, etc)Every year, in early January, the Grim Reaper stakes claim to a proportion of your population (probably a good day to stay in bed). The exact numbers depend primarily on city health, which is itself determined primarily by clinic coverage.
City health is rated in-game as a precise number between 0 and 100, but its exact level is not revealed to you. Rather, the Chief Advisor reports the approximate level (average, good, very good, etc). When it comes to deaths, that is good enough because rates are not affected by rises/falls in health within a range. That is to say, deaths with health at 50 are the same as deaths with health at 59, since both translate to 'average'.
The following table summarizes the death rates for different demographic groups at different city health levels. Ages are on the assumption that census day is everybody's birthday so if you're looking to predict the coming thinning of the ranks remember that those aged 59 will be 60 on census day and so will fall within the 60-69 group (thus shortening their chances of making it through the night).
| Age group | Perfect | Almost perfect | Excellent | Very Good | Good | Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 to 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 40 to 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 to 59 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 to 69 | 0 | 4% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 15% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 70 to 79 | 2% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 80 to 89 | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 30% | 40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 to 99 | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% |
Added July 5 2013:
| Age group | Below Average | Poor | Bad | Terrible | Appalling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 9 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 to 19 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 to 29 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30 to 39 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 40 to 49 | 6% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 to 59 | 12% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 60 to 69 | 20% | 25% | 30% | 45% | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 70 to 79 | 30% | 40% | 55% | 70% | 85% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 80 to 89 | 50% | 65% | 80% | 90% | 100% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 90 to 99 | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 100% |
Just because 10% of 70-somethings are due to meet their maker doesn't mean that 10% of 71-year-olds will. In apportioning deaths, the game first applies the appropriate percentage to the entire demographic group to determine how many to exterminate (ignoring fractions). It then distributes that number of deaths evenly among the constituents of the group using a what I call the sweet-sharing technique. When sharing a bag of sweets, children who lack the faculty to work out how many sweets each should have simply 'deal them out' until all are gone. One for you, one for him, one for me. So starting with the youngest, one person is taken from each age within the group and the process is repeated until the game has exhausted its need to kill more people.
It is clear that the younger ages in the group will bear the brunt of any remainder - if 55 deaths are needed from a group of 10 different ages the first 5 will suffer 6 while the remainder have 5. This is partly what gives rise to 'ghosts' - if there are 6 deaths due to befall the octogenarians the 89-year-olds will get off scot free if there are still at least six younger ages in that group at which people still live. And once you make it to 90 you've a real good chance of the ratio never making a whole number.
It also means that while 12% of a group might face the chop that will not necessarily fall evenly across the group. If you have 40 75-year-olds and 10 at 76, and 20% are due to pop their clogs, only an eigth of 75's will go while half the 76-year-olds are wiped out.
I'll try and get those blanks filled in soon, but I have a 4% chance of not living long enough to finish it.
[This message has been edited by Trium (edited 07-05-2013 @ 05:20 PM).]
