Who kills the poor wee WRP night 0? I'm flattered

Perhaps he's wondering why someone would shoot a man before throwing him out of a plane.

<3

Well, if Herr still wants a claim I highly doubt anyone will argue against, so I might as well cut to the chase. I'm sure I'd do the same in your position.

Claim:

I am Jervis Tetch, the Mad Hatter. Essentially, my character relies on messing with people's perceptions. In particular I can make people look like other people. Therefore I am a Bus Driver.

(For anyone who doesn't know, and to clarify, this means each night I can name two players. All actions directed that Night at Player A will be redirected to Player B, and vice versa.)

I asked Pulse whether I could target myself and the answer was no. I don't think there are any other ambiguities about my night action. Therefore last night I did not target anyone because I couldn't use it protect myself and Bus Driving people at random creates more problems than it solves and would probably make the town hate me (I knew it was extremely likely I'd have to claim early).

My win condition is to be alive at the end of the game.

My Plea:

So, yeah, I don't have the most powerful role in the world. I guess Pulse just wanted to throw a chaos factor into his game. On the other hand, I'm not scum and can help you catch scum during the day. It is also possible to use my action to do some good once a couple of power roles are exposed (because if I Bus Drive them the scum need to target whomever I choose to swap them with, which obviously reduces their chances).

It's open to you to say "it's a safe lynch" and get rid of me, but you will have gained basically nothing from the day. You will then suffer at least one and probably two losses in the coming night. Also, I really am pretty good at finding scum, so you'll lose that. Don't pretend that even if I am who I say am lynching me won't cost you anything. At the very least you can afford to look at a couple of other people before making a lynch decision.

Gold, Ash. Pure gold.

No, Julius, you have it all wrong. Running to lynch you straight away, that would be stupid. Seeing how people react to you and looking into any suspicions, then deciding to lynch you, would be sound town play. Lynching you is a plus in that we cannot trust you are not something that should investigate as guilty, we remove a potentially damaging chaos role and we do not risk mislynching a townie.

Also, I can counterclaim you as a survivor (Catwoman). I have an investigative role to aid me in identifying Hugo Strange, which will result in some reward for me. I want to help the town enough that they don't lynch me, but not so much the mafia want to shoot me.

Just for the sake of meta, my role does not use the phrasing "win condition". I'm establishing if I investigate guilty or not. Either way, I think my vote will stay.

Quoted from Popeychops:

Seeing how people react to you and looking into any suspicions, then deciding to lynch you, would be sound town play.

Only if you think I am the most likely to be scum out of the claimed people. Which does not contradict anything I said.

Quoted from Popeychops:

Lynching you is a plus in that we cannot trust you are not something that should investigate as guilty, we remove a potentially damaging chaos role and we do not risk mislynching a townie.

You are misunderstanding or misrepresenting the situation. The reasons you give are potential reasons to lynch me. There are, in addition, potential reasons not to lynch me. The balance between these is something the town has to make a decision about. What I was saying in my last post was that you should not fall into the trap of thinking lynching a claimed Survivor is a 'no-lose' scenario, which is a faulty line of reasoning I have sometimes seen in mafia.

Quoted from Popeychops:

Also, I can counterclaim you as a survivor (Catwoman). I have an investigative role to aid me in identifying Hugo Strange, which will result in some reward for me. I want to help the town enough that they don't lynch me, but not so much the mafia want to shoot me.

Just for the sake of meta, my role does not use the phrasing "win condition". I'm establishing if I investigate guilty or not. Either way, I think my vote will stay.

Interesting claim. So you are saying that you investigate as "guilty" to a Sane Cop?

It's hard to determine who to lynch right now because we have no idea what the scum will comprise of (the villains seem to be Town), so it's hard to gauge what to look out for in claims. But at the same time a Survivor Bus-Driver is pretty sketchy, and the Mad Hatter is one of the least known Batman villains.

Also, Catwoman as a Survivor makes a lot of sense, and I think that it's best to trust the counterclaimer before the original claimer.

As fun as it is to play with Julius, he is probably scum so he should probably be lynched.

Yeah, it is pretty sketchy. I'll go into why later, I've asked Pulse a question and I'll phrase my response to Julius according to his response.

Quoted from Ashrzr:

I think that it's best to trust the counterclaimer before the original claimer.

This is a horribly broken line of reasoning. For starters, it rests on the assumption that one of the two is definitely lying, which is superficially attractive as it's a way of avoiding doing any real thinking. It's just not that uncommon for there to be two similar roles, or two Survivors in a game - and does not merit a reliance on the assumption.

Quoted from Ashrzr:

But at the same time a Survivor Bus-Driver is pretty sketchy

You just declare this. Give reasons. In my opinion, it's a whole lot better than a Survivor who is also some non-standard vaguely-explained investigative role.

Quoted from Ashrzr:

and the Mad Hatter is one of the least known Batman villains.

But it makes total sense for the heroic character of Catwoman to be a Survivor?

Quoted from Ashrzr:

the villains seem to be Town

Very interesting. Presumably you're saying your character is a villain. And are you saying that none of the townies have heroic characters?

If Popey turns out to be scum then this whitewashing suggests to me that Ashrzr is his colleague.

Quoted from Julius:

This is a horribly broken line of reasoning. For starters, it rests on the assumption that one of the two is definitely lying, which is superficially attractive as it's a way of avoiding doing any real thinking. It's just not that uncommon for there to be two similar roles, or two Survivors in a game - and does not merit a reliance on the assumption.

I see what you're saying. But because mafia is a game of uncertainty one has to decide based on probability. Since this is a 13-man game it is very unlikely that there is more than one survivor. If one does think like you suggest - to base a lynch partially off of the idea that 2 survivors in a small game is unlikely isn't all that unreasonable.

Quoted from Julius:

You just declare this. Give reasons. In my opinion, it's a whole lot better than a Survivor who is also some non-standard vaguely-explained investigative role.

A Bus-Driver is usually a scum role. I have claimed Bus-Driver when I was a scum Bus-Driver, and I won that game with Newt. The reason is that somebody can track a Bus-Driver to two people, and there aren't a whole lot of other roles that involve targeting two people. Therefore it is risky for a scum Bus-Driver to deviate a lot from their actual role.

Quoted from Julius:

But it makes total sense for the heroic character of Catwoman to be a Survivor?

Catwoman is usually presented as somebody whose allegiance is mysterious.

Quoted from Julius:

Very interesting. Presumably you're saying your character is a villain. And are you saying that none of the townies have heroic characters?

Yea, I am a villain. WRP was also one. I am not sure about anybody else.

Dammit, no laptops allowed in class today so I'll just quickly post the info I have. I am Hugo Strange, and I am a regular cop. Last night I investigated Julius and got told that he wasn't aligned with the town. I asked Pulse (just for good measure) whether he could align with the town later but he told me that he couldn't comment on that.

Although Mad Hatter fits almost perfectly with the role that Julius described, there is no flavor backing for the Mad Hatter being a survivor. The Mad Hatter is actually a full-on villain in the game, even if he is being controlled by Hugo Strange and I think we can be fairly sure for now that the villains form the town in this game.

Catwoman on the other hand fits the role of a survivor perfectly given that she practically has her own storyline in the movie. Given the inconsistency between one survivor having such strong flavor backing while the other one having a fairly weak one, I'm leaning towards the latter (Julius) being scum. My vote stays for now.

Vote: Julius

Still trying to get used to typing codes and this forums vote style.

Nevertheless I think Julius's claim seems very scummy to me. As Ash said Bus drivers can tend to be scum roles. Blame my inexperience with this site if I'm wrong but I don't think bus driver is even such a role that a survivor would normally have. I don't even think a bus driver would fit in this game.

I'm interested in Popey's claim, could you reveal who you targetet last night Popey? Or would you like to reveal the result instead?

I'd also like to know Julius's targets.

Depending how confident we feel about a Julius lynch later on the phase for the time being it's probably best Heir doesn't reveal what he had on Julius. Unless of course what he had and what Julius's claim has told us so far don't match up.

P.S.: Damn I type fast.

VOTECOUNT:

Julius - 4 (Herr, Popey, Maeg, Zoshi)

Quoted from Ashrzr:

I see what you're saying. But because mafia is a game of uncertainty one has to decide based on probability. Since this is a 13-man game it is very unlikely that there is more than one survivor. If one does think like you suggest - to base a lynch partially off of the idea that 2 survivors in a small game is unlikely isn't all that unreasonable.

I sort of agree with you, it does count for something, but you're presenting it without acknowledging its weaknesses. You have to balance the probability of being right with the risk of being wrong. The counterclaim logic has a lot of risk, because when you're wrong you pretty much always have two mislynches (or one mislynch and a Vigilante misfire). The decision that "we're going to assume there's only one X in the game" has higher stakes than just about any other single decision (in normal games). Against that risk you need to question the probability of being right seriously. For example, you have to bear in mind that games in HGMM are not infrequently atrociously balanced. Especially relevant is that PoS's previous game (his only previous game?) was completely broken - have a look at Plants v Zombies. Also the fact is that at HGMM most hosts seem to regard Survivors as basically part of the town, due to the way that players approach the role.

Quoted from Ashrzr:

A Bus-Driver is usually a scum role. I have claimed Bus-Driver when I was a scum Bus-Driver, and I won that game with Newt. The reason is that somebody can track a Bus-Driver to two people, and there aren't a whole lot of other roles that involve targeting two people. Therefore it is risky for a scum Bus-Driver to deviate a lot from their actual role.

Your reasoning appears to be that when you're Scum Distinctive Role, you claim as Distinctive Role due to the risk of being caught out. Of course you do, that's only good sense. But you can't make a reverse inference and say that when someone claims Distinctive Role they are usually scum. Suppose that 9/10 times Distinctive Role is allocated to a townie, and the remaining 1/10 times it is given to scum. Because in all cases the player will claim as Distinctive Role it is actually the case that usually (9/10 times) those who claim as it will be town. It is my contention that you have no reason to believe that Bus Driver is "usually" allocated to scum. Do you see the logical weakness in your argument?

Quoted from Ashrzr:

Catwoman is usually presented as somebody whose allegiance is mysterious.

Quoted from Herr:

Catwoman on the other hand fits the role of a survivor perfectly given that she practically has her own storyline in the movie.

I'm somewhat limited here by my lack of familiarity with the source material, although I've looked Arkham City up on Wikipedia. But isn't Catwoman at worst an anti-hero? According to Wikipedia she actively supports (via radio) the protagonist. She's a lot less dubious than the Penguin, and he was straightforwardly town.

Quoted from Ashrzr:

Yea, I am a villain. WRP was also one. I am not sure about anybody else.

As above, I'm not familiar with the source material. My best guess is that the heroic characters (probably omitting a couple for safe claims) are townies, but that to make up the numbers some ostensible villains were made townies too. The mafia faction is probably the Joker and a couple of associates, who were apparently the antagonists in the source material.

Quoted from Herr:

The Mad Hatter is actually a full-on villain in the game, even if he is being controlled by Hugo Strange and I think we can be fairly sure for now that the villains form the town in this game.

Think about this. Are you saying all villains = town? Because in that case you seem to be committing yourself to the view that Batman and company are the scum. Be careful, now. I think it's far more likely that my guess above about the setup is correct and that the obvious good guys plus some villains are the town, the worst villains are the scum, and (at least one) middling character is a Survivor.

I shouldn't have used the phrase "worst villains" in that post, as it suggests there is some sort of moral hierarchy. I am merely supposing that Pulse has grouped together some of the villains (probably characters with close affinity to each other even if they're not an actual faction in the source material) to serve as the antagonists of the game. I just don't think it's at all likely that all villains are town and the heroic characters are secretly killing people. But I suppose I could be wrong.

Yeah you're wrong, there is absolutely nothing in my email that suggests that I'm teaming up with Batman, nor is my flavor objective something that Batman would support under any circumstances.

I'll let people who have actually played the game address your flavor concerns, I raised my objections based on the game's Wiki page too.

Huh, okay. I stand corrected on my conjecture. But in that case, how does Popey's claim make any sense?

Quoted from Popeychops:

Also, I can counterclaim you as a survivor (Catwoman). I have an investigative role to aid me in identifying Hugo Strange, which will result in some reward for me. I want to help the town enough that they don't lynch me, but not so much the mafia want to shoot me.

If the heroic characters form the mafia faction (as you seem sure is the case because your flavour is completely contrary to what they would accept) then who are the members of this faction? Probably Batman, but then who else? Presumably at least two or three others. James Gordon and Robin are good bets, but Catwoman (who is a superhero) has to be in the running, ahead of Jack Ryder the reporter and Alfred the butler.

Also, the basis Popey gave for Catwoman being a Survivor is that she is afraid of being killed by the mafia. Does it make sense for Catwoman to be afraid of Batman and co murdering her?

Thirdly, now that we know Hugo Strange is the town Cop, it should be ringing major alarm bells that a third party character has a role designed purely for identifying him. Think a little on what that means for you, Herr. Balancing measure to deal with a Cop? It shouldn't be too hard for you to read Popey's claim as putting a spin on a Cop-hunting scum role. Personally, I like to think Pulse has taken a leaf out of my book from Masquerade Mafia and inserted a way for the scum to get an advantage out of eager town claims. Read what Popey says again and tell me honestly whether you think he's keeping anything back and whether his role's interaction with yours is really benign.

Sorry if I cover any old ground, but I've just caught up with what's been happening and want to give my initial thoughts.

Julius' Claim - I find this a bit dubious, if I'm honest. I can't work out why the Mad Hatter would be a survivor, and (though admittedly I have a limited knowledge of the character) I also can't quite reconcile why he'd be a bus driver. I would add that I'd expected to see Jervis Tetch/The Mad Hatter as a role in this game, and would hazard a guess that, if Julius is scum, then this could be a safe claim. This is, I think, a good lynch option if we decide not to push for any more claims, or if we find nothing better to go on today.

Popey's Claim - Catwoman is very much the character I'd most expect to be a survivor: perhaps the most morally ambiguous character in the Batman pantheon. Does that make it a bit too obvious? Perhaps, but I'd still have more faith in his counterclaim than Julius' original. I doubt we'd have two survivors in a game of this size. Also, I think it's unlikely that this would be a bold scum gambit at this incredibly early stage, which is another reason I'm tempted to believe Popey.

Heir's Evidence - This is just a slight niggle I have: I'm somewhat surprised that Heir was so quick to indicate that he has some kind of investigative ability so early on, and didn't try to wheedle out some kind of info from Julius by more subtle means. While I am tempted to believe him, particularly given the subsequent claim and counter-claim, I'd like to know why Heir, as an experienced player, came forward so quickly, thus making himself a potential target.

So at the moment I'm leaning towards a lynch on Julius today, but I'd be keen to hear from everyone else so will refrain from voting lest we cause a speedlynch. As someone (Ash?) said, we don't need to rush to a lynch decision yet, so I'd like to hear some more thoughts.

Eh, Herr is something like 90% likely to be town. Given that he correctly called that I investigate as guilty, the only scum role he could be is Mafia Investigator, trying to get himself established as a townie Cop. Mafia Investigators are fairly uncommon.

Newt, I do think you need to look more closely at the meat of Popey's claim. Your initial thoughts are all about whether a particular fictional character strikes you as the 'Survivor type'. In my last post I focus on why I think his claim is very troubling. The devil is in the detail.

Quoted from Julius:

Eh, Herr is something like 90% likely to be town.

Agreed. I'm just slightly curious as to why he didn't try to wheedle a claim out of you before coming forward quite so dramatically. I don't think it's likely to be a cause for concern, just seems a bit more 'forward' than I'd expect from Heir at this stage in the game.

Quoted from Julius:

Given that he correctly called that I investigate as guilty, the only scum role he could be is Mafia Investigator, trying to get himself established as a townie Cop.

He didn't actually say you investigated as Guilty, did he? Just that you weren't aligned with the town. Which is a very small, but potentially significant, distinction.

Quoted from Julius:

Mafia Investigators are fairly uncommon.

Uncommon, but not unheard of. While I agree with your 90% estimate, I think it's always helpful, particularly at this early stage, to keep an open mind about everything until we have more behavioral and results-based evidence. That's not to say I don't believe Heir's claim, but stranger things have happened. Results will help confirm him, obviously.

Quoted from Julius:

Newt, I do think you need to look more closely at the meat of Popey's claim. Your initial thoughts are all about whether a particular fictional character strikes you as the 'Survivor type'.

That's my gut feeling, yes, but I'm not prepared to place a vote based on nothing other than a gut feeling just now. That's why I'd like to hear other people's thoughts first. I also think you're maybe being a wee bit disingenuous here, having yourself just used the flavour argument in posts 29 and 32 to argue why you'd think Catwoman was likely to be a heroic character (and therefore scum) rather than a survivor. But in fairness, we don't know much about the setup yet, and whether or not character flavour is particularly likely to match the roles assigned to them, so there's definitely an element of uncertainty hanging over this.

Quoted from Julius:

In my last post I focus on why I think his claim is very troubling. The devil is in the detail.

I do find the 'Hugo Strange' hunter thing quite odd, though I still don't have any particular trouble believing that it could be a survivor ability: unusual, certainly, but not impossible. Popey, I'm assuming you don't know what manner of 'reward' you receive for finding Strange? And also, do you lose the possibility of gaining the reward given that Hugo Strange has now claimed?

He didn't actually say you investigated as Guilty, did he? Just that you weren't aligned with the town. Which is a very small, but potentially significant, distinction.

This caveat is fair enough, but not terribly meaningful. But I think Herr would have clarified his Cop claim if he didn't get only Guilty and Innocent results.

I also think you're maybe being a wee bit disingenuous here, having yourself just used the flavour argument in posts 29 and 32 to argue why you'd think Catwoman was likely to be a heroic character (and therefore scum)

The distinction is that flavour is easier to use to group characters together than it is to translate a particular character into a particular mafia role, and win conditions are harder still. We can say with confidence that if Catwoman is teamed with anyone it's much more likely to be Batman than the Joker. We can say that the Joker is more likely to have a killing role than a protective one. But win conditions are a different thing altogether, as by necessity the mafia format reduces the motivations of most characters to either town or scum. Tell me, which combination of villains makes sense as a town faction whose members only want at least one of their members to survive? The host has to make some concessions in following the source material to make it work as a mafia game. If he wants a neutral party with a chaos role to stir things up he just picks a character that makes sense and goes with it. That's why I think the flavour argument against me is silly.

though I still don't have any particular trouble believing that it could be a survivor ability

Sure, any alignment can have any ability. In the past I've played all sorts of odd combinations, and included odd combinations in games I've hosted. (Although please do make your point to the people who have somehow got it into their heads that Bus Driver is an ability with special affinity for the scum.)

The point I'm making is that it's suspicious. It looks to me like Popey is trying to put a spin on an anti-Cop ability that he or his faction has, presumably to excuse the fact that he has no other ability (except killing, which he obviously couldn't admit) that he can reliably fake. Or it may be a complete invention done for the same reason, but I think that's less likely. If the target was arbitrary just to give Survivor Popey someone to look for to get a bonus, why does it happen to be the Cop? I suspect it's not a coincidence, but something put in place by PoS specifically to balance the Cop role.

To support this, I intend to link to every other game Popey has claimed in as scum. I've checked out a few and think the others will show the same pattern. Popey as scum never claims anything that can be verified that he can't actually do. He also has a strong tendency to veer away from familiar roles and create weird things like Limited Delayed Executioner and Day-role Cop (I suspect he does this whenever he can't demonstrate something relatively neutral like roleblocking). I believe him to be a scum player who is exceptionally unwilling to leave himself open to the risk of his role being disproved. I think that's why he's created a custom role here, and I think if we had more claims it would stand out like a sore thumb.

Agreed. I'm just slightly curious as to why he didn't try to wheedle a claim out of you before coming forward quite so dramatically. I don't think it's likely to be a cause for concern, just seems a bit more 'forward' than I'd expect from Heir at this stage in the game.

Because my target was Julius, and there can be absolutely no vagueness when it comes to accusing Julius of anything. If I had tried to indicate anything he would've drawn me over hot coals because of it, and since he is the far better player I wanted to give myself firm factual ground to stand on before I took him on.

He didn't actually say you investigated as Guilty, did he? Just that you weren't aligned with the town. Which is a very small, but potentially significant, distinction.

Hardly, if this game is going by the convention that survivors=guilty then it is the exact same thing as a guilty, with no distinction whatsoever. Also it would be hard to justify results actually showing up as plain old innocent/guilty in a game where the villains are town.

I like the subtle shift onto Popey. Julius' points against Popey are interesting but I am far more interested in his claim right now. Lets not forget that his points about the one survivor thing apply to him as well, so if Julius gets lynched and shows up as a survivor then Popey will have signed his own death warrant for pretty much no reason (assuming he's scum). At best he will have to fight a long battle tomorrow to save himself since he can no longer prove himself by finding Hugo Strange, at worst he'll get lynched immediately. Either way he has very little to gain as scum by coming out as a survivor counterclaimer right now. That is why I am pretty inclined to believe his claim, and not just the flavor.

Can you give us more of your flavor Julius? What is your purpose in Arkham City? Were you given no information about who all you have to avoid to survive, and what to survive from?

Just to clarify:

I like the subtle shift onto Popey. Julius' points against Popey are interesting but I am far more interested in his claim right now.

"His" here refers to Julius.

Lets not forget that his points about the one survivor thing apply to him as well, so if Julius gets lynched and shows up as a survivor then Popey will have signed his own death warrant for pretty much no reason (assuming he's scum). At best he will have to fight a long battle tomorrow to save himself since he can no longer prove himself by finding Hugo Strange, at worst he'll get lynched immediately. Either way he has very little to gain as scum by coming out as a survivor counterclaimer right now. That is why I am pretty inclined to believe his claim, and not just the flavor.

All male pronouns in this paragraph refer to Popey.

Quoted from Julius:

The host has to make some concessions in following the source material to make it work as a mafia game. If he wants a neutral party with a chaos role to stir things up he just picks a character that makes sense and goes with it. That's why I think the flavour argument against me is silly.

I imagine the Joker would be a much more likely SK, or town Chaos role, than the Mad Hatter.

Quoted from Heir:

I like the subtle shift onto Popey. Julius' points against Popey are interesting but I am far more interested in his claim right now. Lets not forget that his points about the one survivor thing apply to him as well, so if Julius gets lynched and shows up as a survivor then Popey will have signed his own death warrant for pretty much no reason (assuming he's scum). At best he will have to fight a long battle tomorrow to save himself since he can no longer prove himself by finding Hugo Strange, at worst he'll get lynched immediately. Either way he has very little to gain as scum by coming out as a survivor counterclaimer right now. That is why I am pretty inclined to believe his claim, and not just the flavor.

I absolutely agree. While Popey's 'Hugo Strange' thing is interesting, I can't imagine that Popey would've sealed his own fate quite so early on in a reckless gambit to get rid of Julius. So unless they are both survivors (which I don't feel is likely in a game of this size), then I'm much more inclined to lynch Julius.

Yea, that pretty much sums it up, even if the argument has logical weaknesses.

Vote: Julius

Yea, that pretty much sums it up, even if the argument has logical weaknesses.

Which ones? I'd like to address everything before we proceed with the lynch.

Quoted from Julius:

Interesting claim. So you are saying that you investigate as "guilty" to a Sane Cop?

I'm yet to establish this. Pulse hasn't replied to my email.

Quoted from Zoshi:

I'm interested in Popey's claim, could you reveal who you targetet last night Popey? Or would you like to reveal the result instead?

My result is whether or not a player is Hugo strange. I currently have two negatives, neither Thymole nor Mozzy is Hugo Strange.

Quoted from Julius:

Also, the basis Popey gave for Catwoman being a Survivor is that she is afraid of being killed by the mafia. Does it make sense for Catwoman to be afraid of Batman and co murdering her?

You misread. I'm the one afraid of being killed by mafia. Catwoman is a thief worthy of arrest, but a thief who steals from Gotham's other villains. Survivor suits her just fine. She was even a playable character in the game. Mad Hatter, on the other hand, is always a villain.

Something I'd like to suggest:

If survivors claim later, they should not be believed. Julius' claim would look more credible if there were a third. If there is a third, I'd like it if they claimed now, so I can have an idea about if Julius is guilty or not.

I agree with Popey. I think we should all state that we are/are not a survivor. I'll start: I am not a survivor, nor a miller.

In which case lets wait until everyone has had a chance to post at least once. I think we have like 5 players who are yet to even show up, which is annoying.

Yeah, we'll I think I'm at L-2, so if you're planning to get anything else done today you might want to take a vote or two off.

By the way, there is nothing subtle about my suspicions on Popey. In my view there is a slim chance he is a second Survivor (I agree this probability would go up if a third or fourth Survivor claim happened) but is probably scum.

Quoted from Popeychops:

My result is whether or not a player is Hugo strange. I currently have two negatives, neither Thymole nor Mozzy is Hugo Strange

So after a single night you've somehow been able to use your action twice? Less and less plausible.

Quoted from Newt:

I can't imagine that Popey would've sealed his own fate quite so early on in a reckless gambit to get rid of Julius.

This deserves to be met straight on. I don't see why it's so unlikely at all - it would be a pretty poor gambit if it was obviously transparent. If you suppose that Popey is scum, there would have been disadvantages to letting my claim go without challenge. He could never claim to be a Survivor himself, and so dodge a guilty result, because he would be asked why he didn't bring this up after my claim. Also, if you accept that I am a genuine threat to the scum, letting my claim slide would leave me alive for today and perhaps also tomorrow - in that time it's not unreasonable to suppose I could have made the difference between a mislynch and a good lynch.

On the other hand, there were potential advantages to doing what he did as scum. As well as getting rid of me he would also get the massive bonus that if I was actually lying and was the SK or something that he would then get an easy ride for probably the entire rest of the game. Even if that was only like a 20% chance that's pretty tempting, as scum life spans in a theme game tend to be low.

You're also showing a lack of foresight about what will happen tomorrow when I flip Survivor after being lynched today. Popey will then fall back on the two Survivors argument and emphasise that lynching him will expose the town to yet another night of probably two kills. If the town loses two people tonight, there will be a fear factor in the risk of entering Day 3 down 5 townies and 2 Survivors. The argument will be that a 3 man mafia would then already have the majority. So Popey's death tomorrow is not assured, depending on the personalities of the surviving town he might have a 25% chance of surviving it.

So his gambit had the following pluses and minuses. I've put a rough estimate of what scum Popey might assess the probabilities as, although you may want to quibble:
+ Take Julius out of the game. 90% because everyone loves counterclaims and won't see through the gambit.
+ If Julius flips SK, easy ride for Popey. Maybe 20%.
- Probable, but not definite loss of Popey tomorrow if Julius flips as Survivor. 80% x 75% = 60%?
+ None of the other scum need to claim on Day 1. 80% because Julius will probably be lynched quickly.

This is better for the scum than a straightforward trade. Even if it was a straightforward trade, it's not that implausible that the scum would take the opportunity to take me out. It's not quite such a crazy gambit as it might seem.

Counter claiming is railroad territory, and an underestimated scum tactic. You should at least examine the plausibility of it as a gambit.

I'm not a survivor.

I can confirm that my role is a villain.

Also something we might want to keep in mind, although the cops have been told they are sane, the town may appear to come up as guilty and the scum as innocent, in which case Julius's claim would be false.

Also, Popey, you were told you were 'sane'? I could be mistaken here but the word choice of 'sane' may be to try and convince us that our results are real (which they technically are if scum come up us innocent).

...

It's pretty clear that Herr is the Cop and he's said something about results being 'not aligned with the town'. My claim obviously doesn't stand or all based on the Guilty shorthand.

I am not a Survivor, nor a Miller.