What if I do not find anything except that I don't want to lynch the person?

Then, look harder. If you have a feeling that the bandwagon is going to result in a lynch of a townie, then the most logical step is to look at the people who are most aggressively pushing for that player's lynch. If the pressured player is indeed town, then those aggressive players are most likely scum. Go back through the game (at least a couple of pages) and examine those aggressive players' posts and analyze the arguments in their posts. Does the logic of those arguments make sense? If the pressured player is town there should be some logical fallacies of some sort in those arguments. If their logic is sound, then you should really think about why you don't want to lynch the pressured player.

*cry*

I want games to be fun, not brain work requiring

The fun is in the "brainwork".

No, the fun is in winning and seeing all the great manouvres you guys make and the funny spelling mistakes we guys make!

*draws a line between good players and bad players*

*erases line*

Dude, don't be such a butt. A mafia game is , after all, some kind of detective/spies or (whatever you call it) game. To win you need to do your homework, if you know what I mean.

No!

*plays dumb*



Just kidding. I know I know, my mentality towards mafia has detoriated somewhat after the initial rush.

Meaning you don't like playing as much anymore?

CUM mafia is awesome. Only wish Julius were still alive, then there would be 6 different people making huge posts at the same time.

Pretty much, currently waiting for Silmarillion mafia, might boost my interest somewhat.

O think that HG mafia terminology should be integrated into this thread. Get rid of more of the clutter. They're very similar threads.

also, write more

Roles

General:
Town/"Townies": The "good guys" of the game. Townies alone without any modifiers do not know who anyone else is, and don't know who to trust at face value. Their objective is to eradicate all scum and leave only townies standing.
Scum: General label for anybody anti-town, be it mafia, serial killers or cult. Their objective is to get rid of all town members and leave themselves the lone victors. There are typically multiple scum groups, who are all competing with each other. Scum groups know who the members are of their own group, but do not know who anyone else is.
Cult: A group of people that grows as it recruits more people each night. Converted people normally retain their powers, but for balancing purposes this may not always be the case. They start with one person, the cult leader. Sometimes the death of a leader disbands the cult, sometimes it just stops it from growing more.
Masons: A group of two or more, but almost always just two, town who know each other's roles and are allowed to communicate to each other outside the game thread.
Survivor: This is more of an alignment than a role. It means that the player can win with any other faction, be it cult, mafia or town.

Common Roles:
Godfather: Traditionally the leader of a mafia faction and the person who sends in the kills. Depending on game setup, there may not be a specific Godfather for a faction. Sometimes Godfathers, when present, give off "Innocent" investigations and sometimes they give off their true result "Guilty" based on implementation.
Mafia Hitman: A mafia member that sends in the kills. The hitman's kill is not passed on to other mafia members upon his death, unlike a Godfather's kill. Is it not a necessary member to constitute a mafia, but it is a common role nonetheless.
Mafia Goon: A mafia role with no specific powers. Sometimes referred to as Vanilla Mafia, but this is very uncommon.
Vanilla Townie/y: A role with no powers.
Serial Killer "SK": An unalligned player who normally must kill every night. They win by themselves when nobody else is alive. What used to be a somewhat uncommon role is now a staple in nearly all mafia games.
Doctor: A protective role that protects their target from all nightkills that night.
Roleblocker: This role targets one player and stops all actions that player tries to use that night.
Vigilante: A town player who can kill a player each night. Please, if you are new, don't get overly trigger happy with this role.
Jack of All Trades: A role that has multiple abilities that are normally only usable once. The abilities vary from game to game and sometimes if all abilities are used, then they can all be "recharged" and used again. Insane Jack of all Trades cannot choose their target, and an Unstable Jack of all Trades cannot choose their action.

Investigative:
Cop: An investigative role that normally receives results in the form of "Innocent" (town) or "Guilty" (scum) upon a player that they choose to investigate each night. Cops have what are called "Sanities." See below under modifiers for some of them.
Role Cop: Not as common as cops. Receives the role of the player.
Tracker: They target one person and receive the name of any person(s) that player targeted.
- Paranoid Tracker: A paranoid tracker is just like a normal tracker, except that the Paranoid Tracker always sees that their target targeted them and no one else but them.
Watcher: They target one person and receive the name(s) of any person(s) who targeted that player.
Forensic Investigator: A role that targets the dead people to gain some clue. This can vary from simple clues like "The wounds on this body match the wounds on player X" to "This was the cause of the Y mafia" to anything the host desires. General idea is just clues from dead players.
Ghost: Cop investigations always turn up "Innocent" on these players. As such, it is a role assigned to scum.
Lie Detector: Allowed to copy paste parts of the game, ranging from a sentence to a whole post depending on the game host, to the host so that he can tell if there was a lie in it and where. Hosts, make sure to heavily restrict these players or they can easily exploit the role.
Miller: A town role that returns a "guilty" result to a cop.
Thief: A role which is able to steal items from a player each night. These are often clues to the person's role or alignment but can also be abilities, depending on implementation.
Brain Surgeon: Alters the investigations of cops in a variety of ways, based on the host's discretion.
Framer: A scum role that makes another player appear guilty, even if they are town, when investigated that night.

Vote-Oriented:
Governor: May stop a lynch one day. Some implementations have the governor stop ALL lynches that day and some just prevent them on a single person.
Jester: A role that wins when they are lynched. These really are useless roles that hopefully won't show themselves here.
Noble: This person's votes count for two.
Politician: This person can force a player to vote for somebody of their choosing (done through the mod, don't email people directly). Normally only allowed to be used once per day. There are many different variations, such as "buying" someone's vote and essentially stealing it, rendering their vote useless and adding another to the Politician's own, making him a Noble.
Pariah or Hated: A role that gets lynched with less than the normal votes.
Loved (not to be confused with Lover): A role that takes more than the normal votes to be lynched.
Suicide Bomber aka Bomb: Kills the person who placed the last vote when they are lynched.

Other:
Assassin: A role that can kill any person they wish once per day session. Same name for scum or town, though the role is more commonly scum. (See Dragonball Z Mafia)
Beloved Princess: A very important role, that if it dies, the next day phase is skipped, ultimately hurting the town immensely as it gives scum two kill opportunities right in a row.
Bodyguard: Similar to a doctor in that it protects a player one night from all kills, but the bodyguard kills whoever attempted to harm his protection target.
Bus Driver: An uncommon yet widely-known role. Bus drivers target two people and then all actions perpetuated against them switch targets. All actions that would have gone to player A go to player B and actions that would have gone to player B go to player A. This role causes a hell like you wouldn't believe, for the host and players. Be careful if you want to use it in a game.
Guardian: If their target is attacked, they die instead of their target.
Inventor: A person who starts the game with a certain amount of items that do certain things. The things vary from game to game. They may hand these out to other players to then take advantage of. For example, an inventor may be able to hand out a gun which then gives a one shot vigilante action.
Jailer: A role that roleblocks and protects the player that they target.
Janitor: Causes the role that died to not be revealed. A mafia role.
Lightning Rod: Redirects all actions going to the player they targeted onto themselves.
Lover: A role that will commit suicide if its other lover dies. It can also switch alignments, such as to a Serial Killer or mafia (or town if it was mafia), when its lover dies.
Mind Flayer: On the first night of targeting somebody, it roleblocks and post restricts them. On the next night of targeting the same player, it kills them.
Mind Prober: Same as mind flayer, but it investigates instead of kills on the second night.
Necromancer: Acts as a Reviver/Cult Leader hybrid. They convert players to their "cult" like a normal Cult Leader, but there's a catch -- they can only convert players that have already died. (See Secrets Mafia(
Redirector: A role that redirects the action of one person they target onto another person they target. Say Player A targets Player B. If the redirector targets Player A and Player C, the end result will be that Player A's action will go to Player C. Player A is not often informed of this happening.
Reviver: Not too terribly common, but can revive people from the dead.
Territorial/Paranoid Gun Owner: Whenever they are targeted at night, the player who targeted the player has a chance to be killed. Their action will fail if they are killed.
Reverse Territorial: Exactly as above, but for day.
Traitor: A role that can switch alignments. Most often starts off as town and can switch to mafia. Sometimes its the other way around, though if they start as mafia they normally do not know their teammates and communicate with them through the game host.
Veteran: Essentially a one shot Vigilante. Included because it pertains to how roles are often assigned (military people often get one shot vigilante powers). Try to use "One Shot Vigilante" to describe it for clarity's sake.
Waterboarder: Protects, roleblocks, and investigates the target. The investigation has a 50% chance of failing.


Modifiers

Faith: This is normally tacked on to another role as a type of modifier. It means that the action has a chance to fail. This chance is normally 50/50 but does not have to be.
One-Shot: Like Faith, this is a sort of modifier for a role. This means that this action is usable only once per game.
Unstable: This role modifier is going a bit out of use and wasn't used all that widely even before. A person could do one of two actions based on chance. For example, an Unstable Vigilante Doctor would target a person and, based on chance, either kill him or protect him. It usually entails a 50/50 chance.
Informed: Two roles know of each other, but at the same time, cannot communicate outside the game thread, making them different from masons. In rare cases, a town member may be "informed" of a mafia member or other scum player in the game. (See Hamlet Mafia)
Iron: Immune to night all kills.
Semi-Iron: Typically immune to night kills, but there is a chance the iron does not work. Typically, semi-iron means that a player has a 50% chance of surviving a night kill.
Stone: Has several variations. The most common is immune to one kill, and one kill only. Other variations include being immune to one night kill per night, being immune to multiple kills for one night, etc.
Restricted: Exactly as it would sound. Its a restriction of some sort. Most commonly used with posting restrictions or vote restrictions. These aren't too terribly common but they do pop up from time to time. What the restriction is and what it applies to varies from game to game. (See Half-Life 2 Mafia)
Sane: Normal cop results.
Insane: Reversed cop results
Naive: Always-innocent cop results
Paranoid: Always-guilty cop results
Random: Results are determined by a coin toss. DO NOT USE THIS ROLE AS A HOST, AND IF A HOST SHOULD USE THIS ROLE UNDER YOUR SUPERVISION, KICK HIS ASS AND NEVER ALLOW HIM TO HOST AGAIN.


Terms

OMGUS - "Oh My God You Suck" - Tacted onto statements that are said out of immaturity, such as when someone gets mad at someone else in a mafia game. Quoted from MafiaWiki: OMGUS stands for "Oh My God, You Suck (for voting for me)!". it is sometimes used as a shorthand to indicate that you are voting for someone primarily because they voted for you. Players do not generally actually say this expression, but others generally refer to players as acting in an OMGUS manner because of their immaturity.
WIFOM - "Wine In Front Of Me" - Derived from the film The Prince Bride, this is a tactic scum make. Essentially, it is saying "if I was scum, why would I do that?" For example, if a player is accused of killing a player who is not that experienced in mafia, the accused player could say "why would I kill a player who isn't very good at the game? It would be advantageous for me to keep him around and root out a better player." That is a WIFOM argument that has no proof, and is generally frowned upon due to potentially reverse psychology.
Straw Man Argument - This means that someone has taken someone else's argument and then exaggerated it, promptly refuting it. For example:



As you can see, Jim took Bob's plan into extremes and casted a negative light on the idea as to make Bob's plan look weaker. He deliberately disregarded the potential positive outcomes. This is an extremely common tactic in every day life, and as you can imagine, in mafia when debates arise.

FoS - "Finger of Suspicion" - This is a rare term, but it is used when people are simply discussing who they find suspicious without actually voting for them. Players who prefer discussion over simple pressuring/voting tend to use this method. It is also used when players are voting for another, more suspicious one, while also stating their lesser suspicion of another player with a simple "FoS".
LoL - "Lynch or Lose" - This is a situation when the town must make a decision that, if they lynch a fellow town player, they lose, and if they lynch a scum player, they are still able to win. It happens when the town and scum factions are even or very close to being even.
Condition: These are preset in the game and alter results of actions. These are usually based on trying to get theme realism and generally trump all other actions when a special condition applies. For example "Role X's investigations will always fail on Role Y."

[This message has been edited by Ashrzr (edited 08-05-2011 @ 11:07 AM).]

You should probably also put a hotlink to that post in the OP.

I did, for some reason Thymole took it out.

Oh nevermind, it's there.

[This message has been edited by Ashrzr (edited 07-29-2011 @ 08:46 PM).]

I need some names for roles.

1] Survivor at first, mafia if targeted.
2] Survivor at first, town if targeted.
3] Attacks whoever targets him.

Convertable survivor and paranoid counter-attacker ?

The third one's Territorial/Paranoid Gun Owner.

The second one is a saulus or a vampire. He's a normal townie till the mafia targets him. When that happens the moderator just says that no one was killed and the person who was teh Saulus is now a mafia. You can make it so that if he's a survivor until the town investigates him or the mafia targets him.

"Saulus the vampire" wins with town if targetted by a pro-town player or is lynched, but wins with mafia if targetted by mafia, according to the mikeburnfire slide show.

EDIT: Ninja'd.

[This message has been edited by The Unconvincing Spook (edited 08-23-2011 @ 11:48 AM).]

No I only want him to convert to Mafia in 2] and only convert to town in 1]

Regretful survivor.

Am I the only one who is paranoid over the fact that the paranoid tracker is the only role in ash's list that has a -?

Anyway... more wisdom. Need more widom. WRITE MORE.

A paranoid tracker always receives the result that his target targeted him (the tracker, that is). A naive tracker always receives that his target made no action. An insane tracker always receives the people who targeted his target as having been targeted by his target (essentially a watcher action, once realized).

Similarly, a paranoid watcher always receives that everyone targeted his target, a naive watcher always receives that no one targeted his target, and an insane watcher always receives that the target of his target targeted his target (essentially a tracker action, once realized)

About these insane, naive, paranoid roles-
are the players informed about this(or does it depend on the host?)

It would be pointless to tell someone they were insane

Wow, you really took my Paranoid Tracker idea and ran with it, Rot.

Sanities are never informed. In some games (such as my games or dethy games), sanities are not even revealed until endgame.

And Ash, of course I did. It was a really interesting concept, and making sanity apply to more investigators is fun.

How to think_{Like me}

Alright, I'm going to write this guide for two reasons. The first is so that I can stop having to defend myself by proving that my behavior and mindset are indeed consistent, at least when I'm town and invested in the game (the latter of which is, and should be, usual). The second is to try and get people to understand what it is that I'm saying, and why.

The first rule in my head is that I should probably do a sloppy job. You can rarely strictly determine everything in a game at any given point until it is more or less over. This guide is for those moments prior which comprise the more difficult part of mafia games. Therefore you have to do things loosely. My posts are usually filled with the words "probable" and "plausible" for a reason.



Have you ever seen a puzzle like this? Yes, they're fun. But for mafia they're mostly shit, because you can rarely determine enough facts to come to a solid conclusion (but, if you can, then go right ahead and do so). A much more useful mindset would be a nice little chart like this.



This is a shipping chart. If you're not familiar with what that means, dont' bother looking it up, the look is more important than the meaning. The basics are that each player has a box and each box has lines to signify relationships with other players. The only things you need to care about are Positive Relationships (support), Negative Relationships (opposition), and Probability of Being Scum as determined by yourself.

The first two are something that you should keep track of vigilantly. Being able to recall relationships between players is great for the late game. In hindsight, most late game scum players have a lot of skeletons in their closets. Don't be quick to forgive! If a player took place in all mislynches during a game, he's probably scum.

The lattermost quality is the most important. I hear a lot of players talk about how somebody isn't technically confirmed on some small or obscure possibility. Yes, that's true, but no, you shouldn't really care, because you're not thinking in black and white. You're thinking in terms of probabilities. It is perfectly rational to write off a group of people as probably town and stop thinking about them for a while, even if they lack 100% confirmation. Such things rarely occur. You can even do it if they have 60% confirmation if the game isn't at a critical stage. You should too. The goal of the game is not to protect and establish confirmed townies, it is to find scum. Be aggressive and don't waste time confirming those that you think you can trust. Masons, for example, should never be suspected until absolutely necessary. Put them aside as probably town.

For this same reason, don't go into the mindset that you need to avoid claims in order to protect power roles. That's not really helpful for the town. At one extreme, the early massclaim, you have a game that is kind of boring because it is easily won by the town (see Maeg's Interesting Times Storyteller's Mafia). On the other hand, see games in which claiming is avoided until the very end. They become difficult because people have no idea who is trustworthy in the late game. It leads to problems. Information will usually help the town.

The only thing you need to make sure to do when trying this approach is to refresh your opinions at the start of every new day and important revelation. Short term assumptions are beneficial. Long term ones are delusional. Play in the present under the assumptions that you deem probable, because they have a tendency to prove themselves naturally over the course of the game.

With that in mind, I will conclude with what you should actually use to determine guilt and innocence.

Behavioral analysis should always start with the votes. If you suspect someone, go back and look at all of their past votes. This will usually give strong hints to their alignment. Equally important is whom they defended. Keep in mind that it does not matter if the lynches past. What matters is whom they voted for, even if it was seemingly justified or random. Although less powerful, you should also consider people they've voted for who are not yet confirmed but appear probable townies in your eyes. Keep an eye out for contradictions as well. The whole game is there to read. So read it. It will usually take less than 10 minutes to read through an entire game if you cycle through only a single person's posts (ctrl+f and search for phrases in their sig to speed it up). You can almost always find the scum by using the info described in this paragraph alone.

Strong flavor justification for a role is NOT good evidence for confirming one as a townie because it can usually be faked. Strong flavor importance (such as Spiderman in a Spiderman themed game) IS valid evidence as it is worthwhile to consider in terms of probability. However, the opposite viewpoint functions differently. Bad flavor, in either justification or importance, is something that should be considered suspicious. It is not condemning, but you're not looking for condemning, remember? You're looking for probability changers.

You should always assume the players are playing rationally. Therefore, if a possibility comes up that only a stupid person would do, assume that they didn't do it. That possibility is not probable for a rational person. This, along with the majority of my thinking which revolves around mass assumptions and probabilities instead of a few concrete facts often gets labeled as WIFOM by people who are incapable of thinking outside of boolean mindsets. Pay no attention to them. They're wrong. WIFOM is trying to guess the result of a dice toss. My style is trying to determine which side the dice are weighted to, and guessing on that one (or whichever side a trick pair of dice would land on... >.>). There is a big difference.

I can personally guarantee that my ideas work. Try em. You'll like what you see. The only downside is the opposition you'll face from conservative players... But hey, if you can figure things out, you should.

Quoted from nobody:

I read that.

Quoted from Mozzy:

I read that.

If that makes you feel better about yourself, sure.

On votes I'd like to add that we sprinkle them around like sugar. Badly timed (or well timed, if trying to Find the Cop) pressure or bandwagoning are highly indicative of alignment. Reading too much into votes is just a bad idea. VTs will try to play the cop in the most town way possible and votes outside a bandwagon by scum will probably not look much different from town votes.

Metagaming this behavior would give the best results. Even the players that act unpredictable are more readable than they think. It just isn't going to work against people that have played against you for years. A tell will find its way through somewhere even if not immediately realised.

You should always assume the players are playing rationally. Therefore, if a possibility comes up that only a stupid person would do, assume that they didn't do it. That possibility is not probable for a rational person. This, along with the majority of my thinking which revolves around mass assumptions and probabilities instead of a few concrete facts often gets labeled as WIFOM by people who are incapable of thinking outside of boolean mindsets. Pay no attention to them. They're wrong. WIFOM is trying to guess the result of a dice toss. My style is trying to determine which side the dice are weighted to, and guessing on that one (or whichever side a trick pair of dice would land on... >.>). There is a big difference.

Wifom

Not just WIFOM. That's like text-book WIFOM. It was like you went to the article about WIFOM, copied the contents, and then said "do this."

WIFOM is assuming something is so because it is "likely" to be so. Whenever you pull a random gut percent out of your ass and say "because soandso is 60% likely to be town for no reason other than a number I made up, he is therefore town," you are literally committing the most basic, straightforward WIFOM in existence.

Any time a player says "why would I do that? it would be silly!" they are literally justifying why they would do it. If you can use WIFOM as a defense, then as scum, you will do things that appear to be silly for the express purpose of appearing to be town. To assume otherwise will guarantee loss to anyone capable of cognitive thought.

Not sure if this should be in the guide section, there's a lot wrong with it (apart from that horrible, horrible chart) and none of this is what should be standard practice.

Yes, that's true, but no, you shouldn't really care, because you're not thinking in black and white.

But you should be, because the game is clearly demarcated into black and white. You're either scum or not scum, there is no middle ground. Probabilities are fine when trying to work out who should claim, but when it comes to who to lynch, don't rely merely on probabilities.

It is perfectly rational to write off a group of people as probably town and stop thinking about them for a while, even if they lack 100% confirmation. Such things rarely occur.

No it isn't, especially in games nowadays where things are getting ever more complex. it is always best to check out any groups of people larger than 2 people because such a group will be able to influence voting heavily and you want to ensure that they can't force anything late game on the off chance that they're scum.

The goal of the game is not to protect and establish confirmed townies, it is to find scum.

And the best way to do that is to establish confirmed townies and protect that so that you have a set voting group on town's side that can combat any scum influences. Remember, scum will always have their own voting block, and in a town where everyone is shooting off in their own direction and no one can trust anyone else completely they can and will wreak havoc. Being the lone crusader never works, so don't try doing that until you've ensured that everyone has no choice but to completely trust you.

Be aggressive

Please note that being aggressive equals to ensuring that you don't let up until you're satisfied, not pretending that you know best (even if you do).

Information will usually help the town.

Not necessarily, and this will change from situation to situation. In a situation where your main power roles (cop and doc) are dead and/or revealed due to some reason, this situation will apply. But in most situations where they haven't been revealed, it is best to keep them hidden because town can plan for what they should do and give them instructions that way while scum still don't know who to stop. The town has an advantage in such situations.

Ideally the cop should come out early so that the doc knows who to protect but the doc should stay hidden for as long as possible.

Bad flavor, in either justification or importance, is something that should be considered suspicious.

This, while a factor, is the least important factor while determining the scumminess of a player. If behavioral evidence and the validity of the role itself (not the flavor attached to it) are both in favor of the player, then anyone who harps on the flavor is scum just trying to push a lynch before it is too late.

Therefore, if a possibility comes up that only a stupid person would do, assume that they didn't do it.

And this is where Thymole's play style tends to fail. Human stupidity is infinite, and you have to account for it to a degree. If someone who looks like a townie from all aspects does something stupid, don't assume that they're being scummy, assume that they're being stupid. Repeated stupidity is, of course, unforgivable.

Thymole makes some good points, particularly on dealing in probabilities, avoiding long term assumptions, and considering voting patterns as crucially important.

Quoted from Rotaretilbo:

If you can use WIFOM as a defense, then as scum, you will do things that appear to be silly for the express purpose of appearing to be town. To assume otherwise will guarantee loss to anyone capable of cognitive thought.

The way the game is played at the moment, this is just empirically wrong.

But I disagree on other things. Clearly in a sense it is true that information helps the town, as the town needs stuff to happen in the thread in order to lynch scum. But when people make the general claim that information helps the town they are extending this to information regarding people's roles. It is not a general truth that publicising that information helps the town. It is true in some games, which can be broken by mass claims, but it is untrue often enough that it shouldn't be relied on as a rule. If you have reason to believe you're in a broken game then of course you can try to break it in your favour, but the majority of times you aren't.

Also, every guide here is filtered through the writer's opinion. That's no reason not to include it.

[This message has been edited by Julius999 (edited 06-07-2012 @ 07:04 AM).]

Well he should name it "How to Play the Thymole Way" then.

Not just WIFOM. That's like text-book WIFOM. It was like you went to the article about WIFOM, copied the contents, and then said "do this."

WIFOM is assuming something is so because it is "likely" to be so. Whenever you pull a random gut percent out of your ass and say "because soandso is 60% likely to be town for no reason other than a number I made up, he is therefore town," you are literally committing the most basic, straightforward WIFOM in existence.

Any time a player says "why would I do that? it would be silly!" they are literally justifying why they would do it. If you can use WIFOM as a defense, then as scum, you will do things that appear to be silly for the express purpose of appearing to be town. To assume otherwise will guarantee loss to anyone capable of cognitive thought.

No, it isn't.

If you ask who won in a race, you would guess the faster person, because it is more probable.
If you ask who shot a man, you would not guess the victim, because that would be stupid.
Something being outright stupid is important in determining how probable it actually is.

You are also skewing what I said. I did not say he is 60% likely and there for town. I said he is 60% likely and therefore is 60% likely. From there you can write him off for a short time and move on.

Well he should name it "How to Play the Thymole Way" then

It does.

And this is where Thymole's play style tends to fail. Human stupidity is infinite, and you have to account for it to a degree. If someone who looks like a townie from all aspects does something stupid, don't assume that they're being scummy, assume that they're being stupid. Repeated stupidity is, of course, unforgivable.

All of your points, Herr, basically fall under the same flaw here. You're looking at this in black and white, which was exactly what I told you not to do. If everything points town and then he says something stupid, then you don't do a 180 and switch to scum. You factor that into your probability. Because he is still, visibly likely to be town, as stated by yourself.

This is an example of why black and white analysis is flawed.

Quoted from MafiaWiki:

Life Examples of WIFOM
When chasing down a dangerous criminal, a policeman comes to a fork in the road. To the left is a dark alleyway where the criminal would have a moderate chance of escaping (even if the cop correctly follows him that direction). To the right is a well-lit boulevard where the criminal would surely be caught. The policeman doesn't know which way the criminal went. If he guesses wrong, the criminal will easily make a clean getaway.
If you were the criminal, which way would you go?
If you were the policeman, which way would you guess the criminal went?

Its Wifom Thymole.

Clearly you do not understand why WIFOM is a worthwhile idea. Let's take the example you quoted. The criminal is definitely more likely to take the darker route. I seriously doubt your connection to reality if you think people deliberately take the foolish route anything like as often as the intrinsically better route.

The WIFOM point is that, yes, it's possible to use that to gain an advantage by deliberately taking the intrinsically worse option. On occasion people actually will go through the thought process of taking the weaker option. It's therefore not the case that you can be 100% sure that someone will not deliberately take the weaker option in order to gain this advantage. This is worth bearing in mind. But this point does not render the original assumption useless. It is just not the case that people deliberately take the weaker option 50% of the time. The actual percentage is an empirical question, but in the mafias I've played in I would say it occurs in less than 10% of instances.

WIFOM is a legitimate point that just because one option is obviously intrinsically weaker doesn't mean a rational person will never choose it. Empirically though, it applies only in a small proportion of cases. The sensible stance on this is Thymole's.

So it is Wifom.

You say that like it means that Thymole is wrong.

Wifom counts on metagaming. Absolutely counting on it completely beyond any ability of anything else. Unless you know everyone you're playing with personally and completely, its not going to be reliable. Its a scum strategy and as town you shouldn't rely on it. You should be looking for certain things like game mechs and steady behavior patterns.

Counting on Wifom is asking to lose to unpredictable players.

As always thats just my opinion of the game.
The beautiful part of Mafia is all the different play styles. That's what makes it fun and exciting. If everyone played the same it would become quite boring, quickly. I'm doing nothing more than tossing my thoughts in on the matter, and saying that its something I wouldn't do, not that its wrong for everyone. Just something I wouldn't do.

Quoted from THYMOLE:

No, it isn't.

If you ask who won in a race, you would guess the faster person, because it is more probable.
If you ask who shot a man, you would not guess the victim, because that would be stupid.
Something being outright stupid is important in determining how probable it actually is.

Except that mafia shouldn't come down to guesswork. It is logical to guess the more likely, but it is even more logical to try and find out who actually won the race and then state that they won the race. If a man is shot but not killed, and being shot somehow absolves him of suspicion for something greater, then you should suspect him, just not as much as everyone else, because it is one of the most cliche thriller twists for one of the victims to have faked his injury to avoid suspicion and actually have been the bad guy the whole time.

Quoted from THYMOLE:

You are also skewing what I said. I did not say he is 60% likely and there for town. I said he is 60% likely and therefore is 60% likely. From there you can write him off for a short time and move on.

There is a clear town from writing someone off as "likely town, we can look into him later" and "confirmed town, we can revisit him later, but until then, his word is law". Being confirmed town holds great significance because a confirmed towny's motivation is not in question, and therefore, his opinion holds greater sway than anyone else's. To give that out with wanton disregard is foolish.

Quoted from Julius999:

Clearly you do not understand why WIFOM is a worthwhile idea. Let's take the example you quoted. The criminal is definitely more likely to take the darker route. I seriously doubt your connection to reality if you think people deliberately take the foolish route anything like as often as the intrinsically better route.

Yet we see it all the time. In Industry Mafia, people wrote Barcaii off as town because his Day 1 counterclaim was just too stupid to be mafia. They wrote Mole off as town because his overt deflecting for Gil and flavor mislynch on Pulse were just too obvious to be mafia. They wrote Gil off as a survivor because his Zynga claim was just too awful to be mafia. Low and behold, all three were mafia, and they completely dominated the game. It's actually ironic for Mole to insist that we do things a certain way immediately after winning a game as scum because people did what he's saying to do.

It's called reverse psychology, and as scum, it is a great tool if you can work it in without being accused of WIFOM. It is especially dangerous because mafia are better informed than town. It is very easy to do something that seems to uninformed town like a foolish move, claim "why would I do that, as scum? there would be no gain!" and then laugh because the move was actually quite advantageous.

For example, in Silmarillion Mafia, I made a really aggressive gambit by claiming as a Lie Detector and that a player I believed to be town was lying about their claim. This player had claimed a guilty on a mafia mate of mine, whom I knew to be a Ghost, so I knew they were lying about some aspects. Therefore, it was relatively safe to assume that they had lied about one or more aspects of their role. But from the town perspective, my claim would be suicide if I was scum.

"What gain would there be," I asked, "in claiming that Vinyl has lied if I am not who I say I am? Would I just assume a towny had lied and risk the hypothetical lives of myself and Sarn, who would be my mate were I mafia? Perhaps if I wasn't pushing a lynch to prove Vinyl had lied, but I am, meaning my ruse, were it a ruse, would be revealed today, and both I and Sarn would be dead before tomorrow night. What gain, then, is there in such a gambit? Clearly, I am who I say I am."

And the town ate it up. As Vinyl approached a lynch, she admitted that, in fact, she had lied about the whole thing, both what she was and the extent of the investigation on Sarn. All her group knew was that he had at least one Silmaril, and they had thus concluded that he must be Morgoth, so they lied about the rest to force the town to lynch. And then we lynched Vinyl. I had turned the entire town against the Feanorianerytes, and in doing so, had basically confirmed myself and Sarn as town. On top of that, I had organized for myself to return innocent to investigation, because I believed one of the two of us would be investigated that night. The gambit ultimately failed because the SK took a pot shot at the guy whom I had bus driven myself with in order to produce an innocent (a player whom I believed to be town who had claimed essentially to be either vanilla or just to have a passive ability, such as iron; I didn't think anyone would bother shooting at him).

So no, assuming scum would never ever do something that appears to be foolish is itself foolish. Scum do it all the time for the express purpose of "proving" themselves to be town, because taking a seemingly weaker option in exchange for confirmation as town is and will always be worth it.

All of your points, Herr, basically fall under the same flaw here. You're looking at this in black and white, which was exactly what I told you not to do. If everything points town and then he says something stupid, then you don't do a 180 and switch to scum. You factor that into your probability. Because he is still, visibly likely to be town, as stated by yourself.

It isn't a flaw, making things black and white helps simplify the game considerably. By your percentage system, if a confirmed townie did something stupid once, the probability that he's town would be lessened. But not for me, for me would stay right in the white. Do something stupid again and you're in the black and a sureshot lynch candidate. I refer you to my role in Princess Bride mafia.

(Twin)Sunflower:
A safeclaim used by all of the 20 members in the PvZ mafia, at the end of the mafia it turned out that not a single person was scum and the whole thing was just made out of sunflowers!

Quoted from Herr:

Ideally the cop should come out early so that the doc knows who to protect but the doc should stay hidden for as long as possible.

You're confusing early with ASAP. Early refers to the beginning of the game. ASAP is when its beneficial for the cop to come out - after a few results. If the cop gets a lynch without coming out he'll be protected anyway, and can confirm what he knows after another night or so. By claiming early the doctor will only get a protection if the scum are dumb as rocks, while the town plays follow the cop with his one result that is mostly meaningless. In a small game the cop will just paint targets from then on which could easily be a lurking doctor.

From there it gets worse. By claiming early the cop has no idea whether there is a scumblocker in the game. If the town is at his mercy and decide to no lynch, the cop will have received no result for this and have given up a day and kill to scum. You're at day 2. Down two townies and up a roleblocked cop.

Quoted from SirDante:

Wifom counts on metagaming. Absolutely counting on it completely beyond any ability of anything else. Unless you know everyone you're playing with personally and completely, its not going to be reliable. Its a scum strategy and as town you shouldn't rely on it. You should be looking for certain things like game mechs and steady behavior patterns.

You mistake what Julius is trying to say. WIFOM is the possibility that the person could do any outcome. Julius is saying scum do scummy things. This is true, because scum are forced to lie. It is much harder to fabricate the truth than otherwise.

Quoted from Rotaretilbo:

In Industry Mafia, people wrote Barcaii off as town because his Day 1 counterclaim was just too stupid to be mafia. They wrote Mole off as town because his overt deflecting for Gil and flavor mislynch on Pulse were just too obvious to be mafia. They wrote Gil off as a survivor because his Zynga claim was just too awful to be mafia.

Personally I only thought one of the three. I had thought Mole and Gil would be sorted through the next day while I took a shot at someone scummy and lurking; I wasn't going to shoot Gil, because I had believed him to be a busdriver or iron, meaning low priority scum (not a killer; although, actually a killer). Shooting Mole would have only been done on the basis of him saying vigilantes should shoot Gil as I had been just as eager to lynch Pulse. I had thought he may have misinterpreted how buyouts were done in the writeups, which is why I immediately dug into him on it. On why Barcaii was to be believed I thought the cop would've investigated anyone suspect like Maffia, Mole, Gil, or Barcaii. I wasn't going to shoot him if we truly had two guardians instead of a doctor.

In the end you conclude the town let the mafia help themselves to a win. This is because finding one of the scum would have led to identifying the deflections they had made. Bulba did find this because of his result on WRP (developer) and because I killed him in the same night as his publisher result on THYMOLE. Instead of bringing this up he let Maffia make some of the most misconstrued arguments ever. Barcaii who was screwed upon the doctor dying should have been vigged by Valve. Valve had already claimed a ridiculous role that should have assured Bulba's safety, town or scum. Herr could have shot at anyone else night 2 for fun if he wanted; who knows, it might've landed on Popey or Dante at that point.

I would say our actions up until day 2 were fine. After that the town was seeing who could break their necks first.

[This message has been edited by Peter Fallon (edited 06-07-2012 @ 01:20 PM).]